The xylene/toluene market is easy to rise but hard to fall. Although the world is still in inflation, the recent US economic data are less than expected. In addition, inflation is difficult to offset the severity of the European debt crisis. The European Central Bank may postpone raising interest rates in May. And some external uncertainty factors have aggravated the wait-and-see atmosphere in the commodity market. Crude oil is about to usher in the peak demand season in summer. However, due to the continuous growth of U.S. crude oil inventory, the international oil price continued to fall on the 3rd in May
although crude oil has been falling continuously, the short-term weakening of biphenyls is limited.
crude oil, as the wind vane of bulk commodities, is also the upstream raw material of toluene/xylene. In May, the continuous decline of crude oil and the high-level consolidation of naphtha and biphenyl outer disk have brought some pressure on the biphenyl market and the mentality of the on-site merchants. However, due to the serious inversion of the internal and external disks, as of the beginning of May, the price difference between the internal and external disks of benzene and benzene reached about yuan/ton. Due to the difficulty of replenishing the low-end supply in the future, some import businesses are stuck in the short-term mentality. Moreover, at present, the on-site circulation source is slightly concentrated, and some middlemen wait and see under the current market. The voice of the corresponding holder may be more important, and the bulk low-end supply is reluctant to sell
mentality contest, market stalemate, rising more and falling less
on the market, in East China and Jiangsu, the mainstream negotiation of toluene reached RMB/ton; While the solvent xylene is negotiated to yuan/ton, and the mainstream of isomeric xylene is negotiated to yuan/ton. In the face of high prices, downstream enquiries were cautious and on demand, while the enthusiasm of middlemen fell back. However, under the cost support and demand expectation, most of the first-hand freight merchants in the market are cautious and optimistic in the future market. With limited transaction cooperation, the market continued to push up yuan/ton compared with the end of April in the stalemate of negotiation focus. Although most of the goods in circulation in the market are for profit, and the mentality of businessmen is occasionally divergent under the weakening of oil prices, due to the slightly concentrated supply of goods, the negotiations are also closer to the mainstream
domestic inventory consumption is flat, and the decline of inventory is difficult to get rid of the era of imbalance between supply and demand.
in terms of domestic supply, due to the strong external market of biphenyl, the enthusiasm of Chinese importers to purchase in the external RMB market is slightly reduced. However, domestic downstream consumption is also flat under high-end costs, and there is no significant improvement in transaction. According to rough statistics, by the beginning of this week, the total toluene inventory at ports in East China was about 98000 tons, down 9.26% from the end of last month; The total inventory of mixed xylene at the port is about 85000 tons. The impact of the additional bending moment generated when the calibration lever and force weight are used on the torque indication verification results should not exceed 1/3 of the allowable error of the spring change testing machine, which is 30.77% higher than the statistics at the end of last month. Moreover, at present, there is a large inventory of goods in the port bonded area, and the goods arriving at the port in the middle and early May are still slightly concentrated, so the overall supply is still abundant in the face of weak and stable domestic demand
high commodity prices lack downstream demand support
in terms of downstream demand for biphenyl, it is rumored that the expected increase in refined oil may bring some support to its demand market. However, due to the restrictions on the shipment of refined oil, some domestic enterprises' purchases of biphenyl oil blending decreased accordingly. While the price of benzene and benzene fluctuated upward, the downstream finished products were blocked. The squeeze of downstream profits, together with the pressure of capital flow and power shortage and other factors, make it difficult for some downstream enterprises to survive. Most downstream companies are slightly more resistant to high-end prices, and fall into the digestion and follow-up period of buying. The integration of all production processes of purchasing makes the company profitable and prudent on demand. However, there are still some downstream enterprises, such as oil transfer, benzene oxidation, acidification and so on, whose profits are acceptable and their operating load is high. Moreover, as the weather gets hotter, the demand for xylene is better than that for toluene
based on the above analysis, the international oil price is still the focus of attention in the biphenyl market in the near future, and the mentality of businessmen or follow-up oil price fluctuations are still obvious. Although there are many uncertain factors affecting the future market of benzene and benzene in China, we can see the bright moon after clearing the clouds. At present, the positive is still better than the negative. Cost support, inflation forecast and the persistence of the mentality of the goods holders. If there are no major factors, the market will continue to push up in the stalemate if there is a positive situation. What we are waiting for is the slow follow-up of the downstream; However, if the fixture price of oil for the application of special samples (products and semi-finished products) continues to weaken, the author proposes that the market for 1million cycles of stimulator will fall back slightly, but the fall back space is also limited. The overall negotiation shows that it is easy to rise but difficult to fall
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