Analysis on the development of four packaging film

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Analysis of the development of the four major packaging film substrates in the first half of the year

after singing all the way in 2010, the market was brought into China from the advanced and mature aluminum alloy cable technology in North America in 2011, showing a confusing fatigue. Review 1. Characteristics of relaxation experimental machine in the first half of 2011, businesses walked through constant expectations and disappointments. The reason seems that the market is full of bad news, from macro-control to capacity expansion, and then to weakening demand

BOPP: the production capacity expanded rapidly and the market entered the downward channel

according to the statistics of Boyi information, the total production capacity of BOPP in China was 3 million tons in 2010, with a year-on-year increase of 13.5%; The total output is about 2.55 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. It is expected that by the end of 2011, about 150000 tons of new capacity of BOPP will be released to the market. Overall, from 2010 to 2012, BOPP capacity was in a period of rapid expansion. However, looking back on the BOPP market trend in the first half of 2011, the trend in the second half of 2010 was continued from January to April. However, although the price was upward, the rise was very difficult. From May to June, the good release was completed, the bad hit, and the market entered the downward channel

factors affecting BOPP trend: first, crude oil. The biggest factor affecting the crude oil market this year is geopolitics. The outbreak of the Libyan war led to a sharp rise in oil prices. Brent was close to $130 at its peak in mid April. However, with the retreat of war factors, oil prices began to return rationally

Second, macro economy. In the first half of the year, inflation pressure in emerging economies continued to increase, and the Central Bank of China raised the reserve ratio six times to regulate inflation expectations. However, the tightening monetary policy is obviously not very effective in curbing inflation. On the contrary, it is effective in curbing the economy, and the kinetic energy of economic growth is weakening. In addition, the European economic situation is complex, and the scope of the European debt crisis continues to expand. Although the United States has maintained a good recovery momentum since the beginning of the year, the adverse factors of economic growth are also increasing. The growth of consumer spending, government spending and commercial investment has slowed down, which will continue to drag down economic growth

Third, the relationship between supply and demand. In the first half of this year, a large number of new capacity was not put on the market on the supply side of BOPP. On the contrary, the power restriction factor had a certain impact on the supply side before May. The manufacturers in East China were under started, and the light demand just offset the reduction of supply, and the market supply and demand was in a moderate balance. In addition, the state's strict control over food safety is also an important factor. "Plasticizer" storm hit, and the rectification of the food industry has a direct impact on the demand for packaging

Fourth, business mentality. From January to April, under the influence of soaring oil prices, businesses still have confidence in the market, especially traders, who increase their positions most of the time. However, just entering may, the sharp decline of commodities, gold, silver and other futures directly affected the mentality of merchants in the plastic market, and the market sold enthusiastically for a time

in addition, the influence of relevant film linkage, such as the decline of BOPET film price, is also linked to the trend of BOPP to a certain extent

BOPET: last year's double sky of ice and fire

compared with the power of tiger and tiger last year, the BOPET market in the year of rabbit is also "docile" a lot, and it can even be said to be a double sky of ice and fire. For the sharp decline of BOPET, what market participants denounce is nothing more than the expansion of production capacity and the weakening of exports. According to the statistics of BOPET Association, the new production capacity in 2010 was 175000 tons; In 2011, BOPET is expected to add 550000 tons of capacity, including 105000 tons of thick film capacity; In 2012, the new production capacity was 320000 tons, including 30000 tons of thick film. It is expected that China's BOPET production capacity will double within two years, exceeding 2 million tons, which is much faster than the expectation of demand growth. In terms of exports, the number of exported BOPET has decreased sharply since February. As far as the BOPET market is concerned, India, Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries with the largest exports last year have released their domestic production capacity this year. Therefore, the procurement in the face of China has decreased

CPP: oversupply and low profit operation

the continuous influencing factor of CPP market in recent years is the contradiction of oversupply. The continuous release of domestic production capacity makes it difficult for the industry to escape "low profit operation". In the first half of this year, the trend is even more so. On the one hand, it faces the scarcity and high level of imported specialties. On the other hand, the processing space of membrane processing plants is compressed. However, the profit margin of CPP market is not large, so the decrease of film price is not large compared with the other three substrates

BOPA: the downward part of the transaction price is now at a loss

the market of BOPA in the first half of the year showed a consistent downward trend with other flexible packaging substrates. As the demand gradually shrinks, the inventory of each membrane Factory is gradually high, and the upstream raw materials are lower, so the transaction price of the membrane factory goes down all the way; The membrane plant compresses the processing space. As of the date of publication, BOPA membrane factory has been operating at a low profit, and some manufacturers have even suffered losses. Although exports maintained good volume growth in March and April, the internal power is large, the temperature rises quickly and the durability is strong. The demand is low, and the market is difficult to be strong

note: the reprinted contents are indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information and does not mean to agree with their views or confirm the authenticity of their contents

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